· Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
MŠK Senec vs Nitra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for MŠK Senec and 2.98 for Nitra, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives Nitra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Nitra win
80.3% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 2.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MŠK Senec home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nitra away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nitra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 8% / 12% / 80% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.84 goals for MŠK Senec and 2.98 for Nitra, a combined 3.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.8%
- 0–39.7%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–47.2%
Recent form
MŠK Senec
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs DAC II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Prievidza · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Častkovce · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Šamorín · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Malacky · 2-1 (W)
Nitra
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rača · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Trenčín II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nové Zámky · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nitra | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 31 |
| 2 | Dunajská Lužná | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Púchov | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Spartak Myjava | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Beluša | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Gabčíkovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Baník Prievidza | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Nové Zámky | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 15 |
| 9 | DAC II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Trenčín II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Komárno II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 14 |
| 12 | MŠK Senec | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 12 |
| 13 | Častkovce | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Rača | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Veľké Ludince | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Slovan Duslo Šaľa | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nitra win, at 80.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.