· Analysis updated 15:58 UTC
MŠK Senec vs Rača Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for MŠK Senec and 1.73 for Rača, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives MŠK Senec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MŠK Senec win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MŠK Senec home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rača away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MŠK Senec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 21% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for MŠK Senec and 1.73 for Rača, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.9%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.8%
Recent form
MŠK Senec
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs DAC II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Prievidza · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Častkovce · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Šamorín · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Malacky · 2-1 (W)
Rača
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · H vs DAC II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Baník Prievidza · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Častkovce · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Šamorín · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nitra | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 31 |
| 2 | Dunajská Lužná | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Púchov | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Beluša | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Spartak Myjava | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Gabčíkovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Baník Prievidza | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Nové Zámky | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 15 |
| 9 | DAC II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Trenčín II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Komárno II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 14 |
| 12 | MŠK Senec | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 13 |
| 13 | Častkovce | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Rača | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Veľké Ludince | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Slovan Duslo Šaľa | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MŠK Senec win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.