· Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
MSK Tesla Stropkov vs Humenné Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for MSK Tesla Stropkov and 0.91 for Humenné, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives MSK Tesla Stropkov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MSK Tesla Stropkov win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MSK Tesla Stropkov home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Humenné away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MSK Tesla Stropkov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 27% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for MSK Tesla Stropkov and 0.91 for Humenné, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–09.7%
- 0–19.1%
Recent form
MSK Tesla Stropkov
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Poprad · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lipany · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Partizán Bardejov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spišská Nová Ves · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stará Ľubovňa · 0-1 (L)
Humenné
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohronie · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Žilina II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Bratislava · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Považská Bystrica · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MSK Tesla Stropkov win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.