· Analysis updated 08:16 UTC
MSV Duisburg U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for MSV Duisburg U19 and 1.00 for Fortuna Düsseldorf U19, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives MSV Duisburg U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MSV Duisburg U19 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MSV Duisburg U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 30% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for MSV Duisburg U19 and 1.00 for Fortuna Düsseldorf U19, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–112.6%
- 2–07.3%
Recent form
MSV Duisburg U19
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Schalke 04 U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs RW Oberhausen U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Osnabrück U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 · 4-0 (W)
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.