· Analysis updated 21:59 UTC
MSV Duisburg U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for MSV Duisburg U19 and 1.33 for RW Oberhausen U19, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives MSV Duisburg U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MSV Duisburg U19 win
60.7% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MSV Duisburg U19 home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
RW Oberhausen U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MSV Duisburg U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for MSV Duisburg U19 and 1.33 for RW Oberhausen U19, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.3%
- 2–07.0%
- 2–26.1%
Recent form
MSV Duisburg U19
- 2026-08-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiss Essen U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Schalke 04 U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs DJK Bamberg U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Frankfurt U19 · 3-1 (W)
RW Oberhausen U19
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiss Essen U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund U19 · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs MSV Duisburg U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Osnabrück U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Schalke 04 U19 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MSV Duisburg U19 win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.