· Analysis updated 19:38 UTC
MSV Duisburg U19 vs Schalke 04 U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for MSV Duisburg U19 and 0.48 for Schalke 04 U19, a combined total of 1.48. That distribution gives MSV Duisburg U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MSV Duisburg U19 win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MSV Duisburg U19 home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Schalke 04 U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MSV Duisburg U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 35% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for MSV Duisburg U19 and 0.48 for Schalke 04 U19, a combined 1.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.9%
- 1–022.9%
- 2–011.4%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–110.9%
Recent form
MSV Duisburg U19
- 2026-08-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiss Essen U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Schalke 04 U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs DJK Bamberg U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Frankfurt U19 · 3-1 (W)
Schalke 04 U19
- 2026-08-29T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiss Essen U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs MSV Duisburg U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Rödinghausen U19 · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MSV Duisburg U19 win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.