MSV-Arena · Referee Cristian Ballweg · Analysis updated 13:51 UTC
MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for MSV Duisburg and 1.85 for FC Viktoria Köln, a combined total of 4.07. That distribution gives MSV Duisburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MSV Duisburg win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MSV Duisburg home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Viktoria Köln away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–17.0%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–15.8%
Recent form
MSV Duisburg
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Viktoria Köln · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 4-1 (W)
FC Viktoria Köln
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Verl · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs MSV Duisburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Alemannia Aachen · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T11:30:00.000Z · MSV Duisburg 1-1 FC Viktoria Köln (3. Liga)
- 2025-12-21T18:30:00.000Z · MSV Duisburg 0-0 FC Viktoria Köln (3. Liga)
- 2024-02-17T13:00:00.000Z · MSV Duisburg 1-0 FC Viktoria Koln (3. Liga)
- 2023-09-23T12:00:00.000Z · MSV Duisburg 0-2 FC Viktoria Koln (3. Liga)
- 2023-04-17T17:00:00.000Z · MSV Duisburg 2-2 FC Viktoria Koln (3. Liga)
- 2022-10-22T12:00:00.000Z · MSV Duisburg 1-1 FC Viktoria Koln (3. Liga)
- 2022-03-05T13:00:00.000Z · MSV Duisburg 2-0 FC Viktoria Koln (3. Liga)
- 2021-09-25T12:00:00.000Z · MSV Duisburg 2-4 FC Viktoria Koln (3. Liga)
- 2021-03-13T13:00:00.000Z · MSV Duisburg 1-3 FC Viktoria Koln (3. Liga)
- 2020-11-09T18:00:00.000Z · MSV Duisburg 1-3 FC Viktoria Koln (3. Liga)
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Alemannia Aachen | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Waldhof Mannheim | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Hoffenheim II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Hansa Rostock | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | SV Wehen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 11 | Preußen Münster | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 12 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 | SV Meppen | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Stuttgart II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 15 | Verl | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 | Würzburger Kickers | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 20 | Havelse | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MSV Duisburg win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.