MSV-Arena · Referee Leonidas Exuzidis, Germany · Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for MSV Duisburg and 1.42 for Hoffenheim II, a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives MSV Duisburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MSV Duisburg win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
2.47 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MSV Duisburg home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hoffenheim II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MSV Duisburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.47 goals for MSV Duisburg and 1.42 for Hoffenheim II, a combined 3.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–26.3%
- 2–06.2%
Recent form
MSV Duisburg
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 1-2 (L)
Hoffenheim II
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Meppen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Köln · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs SSV Jahn Regensburg · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Hansa Rostock | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 15 |
| 7 | Stuttgart II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alemannia Aachen | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Waldhof Mannheim | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Preußen Münster | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | SV Wehen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 | Verl | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | SV Meppen | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Havelse | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MSV Duisburg win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.