MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger Kickers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for MSV Duisburg and 2.00 for Würzburger Kickers, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives MSV Duisburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.25 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

MSV Duisburg home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Würzburger Kickers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

MSV Duisburg win45%

Draw20%

Würzburger Kickers win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals61%

Both teams to score77%

Correct score

2–17.2%
2–27.2%
1–16.4%
1–26.4%
3–15.4%

Recent form

MSV Duisburg

2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 1-2 (L)

Würzburger Kickers

2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart II · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Verl · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Alemannia Aachen · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 2-6 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · MSV Duisburg 3-0 Würzburger Kickers (3. Liga)
2022-02-12T13:00:00.000Z · MSV Duisburg 2-1 FC Wurzburger Kickers (3. Liga)
2021-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · MSV Duisburg 2-0 FC Wurzburger Kickers (3. Liga)
2020-06-13T12:00:00.000Z · MSV Duisburg 1-1 FC Wurzburger Kickers (3. Liga)
2019-10-26T12:00:00.000Z · MSV Duisburg 2-0 FC Wurzburger Kickers (3. Liga)

3. Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	9	8	0	1	15	24
2	FC Viktoria Köln	8	6	0	2	13	18
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	9	5	3	1	6	18
4	Hansa Rostock	9	4	3	2	0	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	9	4	2	3	5	14
6	Waldhof Mannheim	8	4	1	3	5	13
7	Hoffenheim II	9	4	1	4	4	13
8	Preußen Münster	8	3	3	2	-1	12
9	Alemannia Aachen	8	3	2	3	0	11
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	8	3	2	3	-1	11
11	Stuttgart II	9	3	2	4	-2	11
12	Verl	8	3	2	3	-3	11
13	Fortuna Köln	9	2	4	3	-2	10
14	SV Meppen	9	3	1	5	-5	10
15	SSV Jahn Regensburg	8	2	2	4	1	8
16	Würzburger Kickers	9	2	2	5	-6	8
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	2	2	4	-6	8
18	SV Wehen	8	2	2	4	-6	8
19	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	8	2	2	4	-7	8
20	Havelse	9	1	2	6	-10	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.