Dittmer Park · Analysis updated 09:00 UTC
Mt Gravatt vs Centenary Stormers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.18 expected goals for Mt Gravatt and 1.09 for Centenary Stormers, a combined total of 4.27. That distribution gives Mt Gravatt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mt Gravatt win
78.0% probability
Expected goals
3.18 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Centenary Stormers away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mt Gravatt to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 13% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.18 goals for Mt Gravatt and 1.09 for Centenary Stormers, a combined 4.27 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 63%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.2%
- 2–17.7%
- 3–07.5%
- 2–07.1%
- 4–16.5%
Recent form
Mt Gravatt
Centenary Stormers
- 2025-08-26T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Virginia United · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs North Brisbane · 2-4 (L)
- 2025-08-19T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Springfield United · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-08-16T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Mt Gravatt · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Newmarket · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Brisbane Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newmarket | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 22 |
| 2 | Springfield United | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Virginia United | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 21 |
| 4 | North Pine | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Mt Gravatt | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | Carina | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Ipswich Knights | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 | Yeronga Eagles | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Redcliffe Dolphins | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 10 |
| 10 | North Brisbane | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -11 | 6 |
| 11 | Univ. Queensland | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 12 | Centenary Stormers | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 4 |
| 13 | Bayside United | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -28 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mt Gravatt win, at 78.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.