Victor Tedesco Stadium · Analysis updated 11:00 UTC
Mtarfa vs Santa Lucía Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Mtarfa and 2.35 for Santa Lucía, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Santa Lucía the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santa Lucía win
68.5% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 2.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mtarfa home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santa Lucía away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Lucía to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 14% / 18% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Mtarfa and 2.35 for Santa Lucía, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–18.2%
- 0–38.0%
Recent form
Mtarfa
- 2026-04-19T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Santa Lucía · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-04-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Marsa · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-01T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Vittoriosa Stars · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Gudja United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-07T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Zurrieq · 0-2 (L)
Santa Lucía
- 2026-09-18T16:15:00.000Z · A vs St. Andrews · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vittoriosa Stars · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Mtarfa · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-04-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Zurrieq · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Mgarr United · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Fgura United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Naxxar Lions | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Mgarr United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Swieqi United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Melita | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | St. Andrews | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pietà Hotspurs | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Victoria Hotspurs | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Vittoriosa Stars | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Santa Lucía | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Zurrieq | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Sirens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Attard | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Zebbug Rangers | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Gudja United | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santa Lucía win, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.