Victor Tedesco Stadium · Analysis updated 13:01 UTC
Mtarfa vs Sirens Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Mtarfa and 2.48 for Sirens, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Sirens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sirens win
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 2.48
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mtarfa home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sirens away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sirens to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 17% / 18% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Mtarfa and 2.48 for Sirens, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–17.5%
- 0–36.4%
Recent form
Mtarfa
- 2026-04-19T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Santa Lucía · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-04-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Marsa · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-01T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Vittoriosa Stars · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Gudja United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-07T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Zurrieq · 0-2 (L)
Sirens
- 2026-04-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Birzebbuga · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pietà Hotspurs · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-04-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Balzan FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-15T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Fgura United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-03-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Andrews · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Fgura United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Naxxar Lions | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Mgarr United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Swieqi United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Melita | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | St. Andrews | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pietà Hotspurs | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Victoria Hotspurs | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Vittoriosa Stars | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Santa Lucía | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Zurrieq | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Sirens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Attard | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Zebbug Rangers | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Gudja United | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sirens win, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.