Wittmann Antal park · Analysis updated 22:34 UTC
MTE 1904 vs Beşiktaş Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for MTE 1904 and 1.45 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives MTE 1904 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MTE 1904 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Beşiktaş away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MTE 1904 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 24% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for MTE 1904 and 1.45 for Beşiktaş, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
MTE 1904
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pápai Perutz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zalaegerszegi TE II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Komárom · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs 1908 SZAC · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Veszprém · 1-1 (D)
Beşiktaş
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzurumspor FK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Çorum FK · 6-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-05T15:00:00.000Z · MTE 1904 0-0 Beşiktaş (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.