MTK Budapest II vs Dunaharaszti MTK Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.23 expected goals for MTK Budapest II and 1.25 for Dunaharaszti MTK, a combined total of 4.48. That distribution gives MTK Budapest II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

MTK Budapest II win

75.7% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.23 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

MTK Budapest II home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dunaharaszti MTK away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MTK Budapest II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 13% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.23 goals for MTK Budapest II and 1.25 for Dunaharaszti MTK, a combined 4.48 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

MTK Budapest II win76%

Draw13%

Dunaharaszti MTK win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

24%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals65%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

3–18.0%
2–17.4%
4–16.4%
3–06.4%
2–05.9%

Recent form

MTK Budapest II

2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunaharaszti MTK · 4-2 (W)
2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Paksi SE II · 4-2 (W)
2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Budaörs · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Siofok · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 8-0 (W)

Dunaharaszti MTK

2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kaposvar · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Iváncsa · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-21T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ikarus BSE · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Érdi VSE · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Majosi · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NB III - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pécsi MFC	13	12	1	0	36	37
2	Kaposvar	12	8	1	3	18	25
3	Ferencváros II	12	6	3	3	9	21
4	Iváncsa	12	7	0	5	6	21
5	Majosi	12	6	3	3	2	21
6	Dunaharaszti MTK	12	6	2	4	4	20
7	Budafoki LC	12	5	3	4	3	18
8	Siofok	12	5	2	5	5	17
9	Érdi VSE	12	4	4	4	0	16
10	PTE-PEAC	12	4	4	4	-2	16
11	MTK Budapest II	11	5	0	6	5	15
12	Budaörs	12	3	3	6	-19	12
13	Paksi SE II	12	2	4	6	2	10
14	Sárbogárd	12	1	2	9	-28	5
15	Szekszárd	12	0	0	12	-41	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is MTK Budapest II win, at 75.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.