Sándor Károly Labdarúgó Akadémia · Analysis updated 10:44 UTC
MTK Budapest II vs Dunaujvaros FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for MTK Budapest II and 1.05 for Dunaujvaros FC, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives MTK Budapest II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MTK Budapest II win
63.5% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MTK Budapest II home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dunaujvaros FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MTK Budapest II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 20% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for MTK Budapest II and 1.05 for Dunaujvaros FC, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.4%
- 1–19.0%
- 1–08.5%
- 3–17.2%
Recent form
MTK Budapest II
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunaharaszti MTK · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Paksi SE II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Budaörs · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Siofok · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 8-0 (W)
Dunaujvaros FC
- 2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T09:00:00.000Z · A vs MTK Budapest II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pécsi MFC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Majosi · 2-7 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 37 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Ferencváros II | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Iváncsa | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Majosi | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 6 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Budafoki LC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Siofok | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 17 |
| 9 | Érdi VSE | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | PTE-PEAC | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | MTK Budapest II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
| 12 | Budaörs | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -19 | 12 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -28 | 5 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -41 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MTK Budapest II win, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.