Hidegkúti Nándor Stadion · Referee Peter Antal · Analysis updated 21:39 UTC
MTK Budapest vs Gyori ETO FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for MTK Budapest and 1.24 for Gyori ETO FC, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives MTK Budapest the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MTK Budapest home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gyori ETO FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–27.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.70 (model 44.6% vs market 34.1%, edge +10.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.70 | 34.1% | 44.6% | 2.24 | +10.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 43.3% | 43.5% | 2.30 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 68.7% | 68.8% | 1.45 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.3% | 25.3% | 3.95 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.7% | 1.34 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.65 | 56.6% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 31.4% | 31.2% | 3.21 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 65.9% | 55.4% | 1.81 | -10.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
MTK Budapest
- 2026-09-20T12:40:00.000Z · H vs Gyori ETO FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mezokovesd-zsory · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kisvarda FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Debreceni VSC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza · 2-1 (W)
Gyori ETO FC
- 2026-09-20T12:40:00.000Z · A vs MTK Budapest · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Karcag SE · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Budapest Honved · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-03T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Ferencvarosi TC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kisvarda FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T12:40:00.000Z · MTK Budapest 1-2 Gyori ETO FC (NB I)
- 2026-03-13T19:00:00.000Z · MTK Budapest 0-0 Gyori ETO FC (NB I)
- 2025-11-29T15:15:00.000Z · MTK Budapest 0-3 Gyori ETO FC (NB I)
- 2025-08-17T15:45:00.000Z · MTK Budapest 2-7 Gyori ETO FC (NB I)
- 2025-03-29T13:30:00.000Z · MTK Budapest 1-2 Gyori ETO FC (NB I)
- 2024-11-23T15:00:00.000Z · MTK Budapest 2-2 Gyori ETO FC (NB I)
- 2024-08-11T13:45:00.000Z · MTK Budapest 2-1 Gyori ETO FC (NB I)
- 2023-04-10T18:00:00.000Z · MTK Budapest 2-1 Gyori ETO FC (NB II)
- 2022-10-09T18:15:00.000Z · MTK Budapest 1-1 Gyori ETO FC (NB II)
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Vasas | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Gyori ETO FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Paks | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Debreceni VSC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyiregyhaza | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Budapest Honved | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.