Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium · Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
Muaither SC vs Al Waab Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Muaither SC and 0.97 for Al Waab, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Muaither SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.1% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Muaither SC home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muaither SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 29% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Muaither SC and 0.97 for Al Waab, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 2–08.4%
Recent form
Muaither SC
- 2026-10-01T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Shamal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Khor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa B · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Rayyan SC B · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Mesaimeer · 0-1 (L)
Al Waab
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Al Bidda SC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | Al Waab | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Muaither SC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Al Kharaitiyat | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Al Mesaimeer | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | UMM Salal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 8 | Al-Khor | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa B | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | Al Shamal II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Rayyan SC B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.