Blue Dragon Muang Loei Stadium · Referee S. Jankgoen · Analysis updated 17:19 UTC
Muang Loei United vs BG Pathum United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Muang Loei United and 1.30 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Muang Loei United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Muang Loei United win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Muang Loei United home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
BG Pathum United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muang Loei United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Muang Loei United and 1.30 for BG Pathum United, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–07.1%
Recent form
Muang Loei United
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Khon Kaen United · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Kanchanaburi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Esan Pattaya · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Songkhla · 1-1 (D)
BG Pathum United
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chiangrai United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Khon Kaen United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sisaket United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayutthaya FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Muang Loei United win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.