Ruamjai Stadium Loei Rajabhat University · Analysis updated 07:45 UTC
Muang Loei United vs Chainat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Muang Loei United and 1.24 for Chainat, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Muang Loei United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Muang Loei United win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Muang Loei United home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chainat away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muang Loei United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Muang Loei United and 1.24 for Chainat, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–27.2%
Recent form
Muang Loei United
- 2025-01-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sukhothai FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2024-11-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Romklao United · 2-0 (W)
- 2024-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Police Tero · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-09-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Roi Et · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Nakhon Si City · 0-0 (D)
Chainat
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Uttaradit · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Khon Kaen United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Songkhla · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Esan Pattaya · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · Muang Loei United 3-0 Chainat (Thai League 2)
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Chainat | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | Uttaradit | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Satun | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Kanchanaburi | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Chiangmai United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Police Tero | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Phrae United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Nakhon Pathom | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Muang Loei United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Chanthaburi | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Muangthong United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Songkhla | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Mahasarakham United | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Muang Loei United win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.