Ruamjai Stadium Loei Rajabhat University · Analysis updated 04:20 UTC
Muang Loei United vs Phrae United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Muang Loei United and 0.50 for Phrae United, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Muang Loei United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Muang Loei United win
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Muang Loei United home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Phrae United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muang Loei United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 26% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Muang Loei United and 0.50 for Phrae United, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.3%
- 2–015.2%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Muang Loei United
- 2025-01-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sukhothai FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2024-11-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Romklao United · 2-0 (W)
- 2024-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Police Tero · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-09-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Roi Et · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Nakhon Si City · 0-0 (D)
Phrae United
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Muangthong United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kanchanaburi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Esan Pattaya · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Muang Loei United · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Uttaradit | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Satun | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Kanchanaburi | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Chainat | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Chiangmai United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Phrae United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Chanthaburi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Police Tero | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Nakhon Pathom | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Muang Loei United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Muangthong United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Songkhla | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Mahasarakham United | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Muang Loei United win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.