Thunderdome Stadium · Referee C. Ngamsom · Analysis updated 21:33 UTC
Muangthong United vs Chiangrai United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.50 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Chiangrai United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chiangrai United win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Muangthong United home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chiangrai United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 26% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Muangthong United and 1.50 for Chiangrai United, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–28.1%
Recent form
Muangthong United
- 2026-10-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Phrae United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nakhon Pathom · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Chiangmai United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Satun · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nong Bua Pitchaya · 2-1 (W)
Chiangrai United
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Ratchaburi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Prachuap · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sisaket United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chonburi FC · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-05T11:00:00.000Z · Muangthong United 2-1 Chiangrai United (Thai League 1)
- 2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · Muangthong United 2-0 Chiangrai United (Thai League 1)
- 2025-02-08T11:00:00.000Z · Muangthong United 2-1 Chiangrai United (Thai League 1)
- 2024-12-15T11:00:00.000Z · Muangthong United 1-3 Chiangrai United (Thai League 1)
- 2024-05-26T11:00:00.000Z · Muangthong United 3-2 Chiangrai United (Thai League 1)
- 2023-08-13T11:00:00.000Z · Muangthong United 0-1 Chiangrai United (Thai League 1)
- 2023-04-30T11:00:00.000Z · Muangthong United 1-2 Chiangrai United (Thai League 1)
- 2023-02-08T11:00:00.000Z · Muangthong United 0-1 Chiangrai United (FA Cup)
- 2022-11-19T11:30:00.000Z · Muangthong United 1-3 Chiangrai United (Thai League 1)
- 2022-02-27T12:00:00.000Z · Muangthong United 1-1 Chiangrai United (Thai League 1)
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Buriram United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Prachuap | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Ratchaburi | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Uthai Thani | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Sisaket United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | BG Pathum United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Bangkok United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Rayong FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Ayutthaya FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sukhothai FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Lamphun Warrior | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Chiangrai United | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Chonburi FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Rasi Salai United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chiangrai United win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.