· Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Mudhar Club vs Al Nairyah Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Mudhar Club and 1.14 for Al Nairyah, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Mudhar Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.1% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mudhar Club home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Nairyah away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mudhar Club to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Mudhar Club and 1.14 for Al Nairyah, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–07.9%
Recent form
Mudhar Club
- 2026-04-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Saqer · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-27T12:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Safa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Kawkab · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Gottah · 0-2 (L)
Al Nairyah
- 2026-10-09T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Wajj · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-07T12:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Gottah · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Kawkab · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-27T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Qous · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-03-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Arar · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Entesar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Al-Kawkab | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Al Sharq | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Al-Wajj | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Al Rayan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Al Shoalah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Arar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Rawdhah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Baish | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Al Safa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Najran | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Arabi SC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Al Taraji | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Qous | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Al Jubail | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | Al Baten | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 17 | Al Hada | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Afif | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 19 | Al Qwarah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 20 | Al Sahel | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 21 | Al Loa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 22 | Jubbah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 23 | Jerash | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Al Nairyah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Qilwah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Al Najoom | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Al Gottah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Al-Washm | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.