· Analysis updated 22:01 UTC
Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Muğlaspor and 0.87 for Esenler Erokspor, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Muğlaspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Muğlaspor win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Muğlaspor home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Esenler Erokspor away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muğlaspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 26% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Muğlaspor and 0.87 for Esenler Erokspor, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.5%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–19.1%
Recent form
Muğlaspor
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs İstanbulspor · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Manisa F.K. · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bursaspor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fatih Karagümrük · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Iğdır FK · 2-2 (D)
Esenler Erokspor
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatih Karagümrük · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bursaspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kayserispor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodrum FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Iğdır FK · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Iğdır FK | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 26 |
| 3 | Bursaspor | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Keçiörengücü | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | Batman Petrolspor | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 | Muğlaspor | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Mardin 1969 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 9 | Fatih Karagümrük | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Sarıyer | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Bandırmaspor | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
| 12 | Bodrum FK | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 13 | Ümraniyespor | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 14 | Sivasspor | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Esenler Erokspor | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 16 | Manisa F.K. | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Vanspor FK | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 18 | Pendikspor | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -22 | 5 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Muğlaspor win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.