· Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Muharraq vs Al Ahli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Muharraq and 0.88 for Al Ahli, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Muharraq the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Muharraq win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Muharraq home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ahli away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muharraq to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 28% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Muharraq and 0.88 for Al Ahli, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–011.0%
- 2–09.7%
- 0–19.7%
Recent form
Muharraq
- 2026-09-15T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Arkadag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Manama · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittifaq Maqaba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs A'Ali · 1-0 (W)
Al Ahli
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittifaq Maqaba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hidd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Muharraq · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Budaiya · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hidd · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Muharraq win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.