· Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Muharraq vs Al Riffa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.85 expected goals for Muharraq and 2.00 for Al Riffa, a combined total of 4.85. That distribution gives Muharraq the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Muharraq win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
2.85 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Muharraq home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muharraq to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 18% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.85 goals for Muharraq and 2.00 for Al Riffa, a combined 4.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 86% and both teams to score at 81%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.4%
- 2–26.4%
- 3–16.0%
- 3–26.0%
- 1–14.5%
Recent form
Muharraq
- 2026-09-15T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Arkadag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Manama · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittifaq Maqaba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs A'Ali · 1-0 (W)
Al Riffa
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Muharraq win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.