· Analysis updated 16:49 UTC
Muharraq vs Manama Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.19 expected goals for Muharraq and 0.98 for Manama, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Muharraq the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Muharraq win
64.8% probability
Expected goals
2.19 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Muharraq home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muharraq to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 19% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.19 goals for Muharraq and 0.98 for Manama, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 56%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–19.0%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Muharraq
- 2026-09-15T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Arkadag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Manama · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittifaq Maqaba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs A'Ali · 1-0 (W)
Manama
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Muharraq win, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.