· Analysis updated 12:16 UTC
Mukura vs Gicumbi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Mukura and 0.90 for Gicumbi, a combined total of 1.99. That distribution gives Mukura the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mukura home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gicumbi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 0–013.7%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.3%
- 2–08.2%
Recent form
Mukura
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Etoile de l'Est · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amagaju · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gasogi United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Amagaju · 0-0 (D)
Gicumbi
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Kigali · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Etoile de l'Est · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Amagaju · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Police · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs APR · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 2-3 Gicumbi (National Soccer League)
- 2025-12-14T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 2-0 Gicumbi (National Soccer League)
- 2022-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 1-0 Gicumbi (National Soccer League)
- 2022-01-20T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 1-1 Gicumbi (National Soccer League)
- 2020-02-09T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 3-0 Gicumbi (National Soccer League)
- 2019-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 3-1 Gicumbi (National Soccer League)
- 2019-06-01T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 1-1 Gicumbi (National Soccer League)
- 2019-02-07T13:30:00.000Z · Mukura 1-1 Gicumbi (National Soccer League)
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gorilla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 2 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Marines | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Amagaju | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Mukura | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Sunrise | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Gasogi United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Police | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.