· Analysis updated 16:05 UTC
Mukura vs Police Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Mukura and 0.64 for Police, a combined total of 1.86. That distribution gives Mukura the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mukura win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mukura home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Police away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mukura to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 30% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Mukura and 0.64 for Police, a combined 1.86 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.1%
- 0–015.6%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.6%
- 0–19.9%
Recent form
Mukura
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gasogi United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Amagaju · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gicumbi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bugesera · 2-2 (D)
Police
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunrise · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mukura · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gicumbi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gasogi United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kiyovu Sports · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Mukura | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Gorilla | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Sunrise | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Marines | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Amagaju | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Bugesera | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Police | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Gasogi United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mukura win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.