Mukura vs Sunrise Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Mukura and 0.55 for Sunrise, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Mukura the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Mukura win

55.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 0.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mukura home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sunrise away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Mukura win55%

Draw29%

Sunrise win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals28%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score31%

Correct score

1–020.4%
0–015.7%
2–013.3%
1–111.2%
0–18.6%

Recent form

Mukura

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Etoile de l'Est · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amagaju · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gasogi United · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Amagaju · 0-0 (D)

Sunrise

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amagaju · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gasogi United · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayon Sports · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Etincelles · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2024-02-17T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 4-2 Sunrise (National Soccer League)
2023-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 1-0 Sunrise (National Soccer League)
2023-03-11T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 2-1 Sunrise (National Soccer League)
2022-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 2-1 Sunrise (National Soccer League)
2021-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 1-1 Sunrise (National Soccer League)
2021-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 2-4 Sunrise (National Soccer League)
2021-05-01T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 1-1 Sunrise (National Soccer League)
2020-12-07T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 0-0 Sunrise (National Soccer League)
2020-01-12T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 4-1 Sunrise (National Soccer League)
2019-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · Mukura 0-0 Sunrise (National Soccer League)

National Soccer League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gorilla	6	3	2	1	2	11
2	Mukura	5	3	1	1	3	10
3	Gicumbi	5	3	0	2	1	9
4	Marines	5	2	2	1	4	8
5	Amagaju	6	2	1	3	3	7
6	Sunrise	6	1	4	1	-3	7
7	Etincelles	5	2	1	2	-4	7
8	Bugesera	3	2	0	1	3	6
9	Musanze	4	2	0	2	1	6
10	Gasogi United	6	1	3	2	-3	6
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Police	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	AS Kigali	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	APR	1	1	0	0	2	3
15	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	1	0	0	2	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	5	0	3	2	-3	3
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1	0	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	0	1	1	-1	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mukura win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.