Estadio Manuel Felipe Carrera · Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Municipal vs Malacateco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Municipal and 0.68 for Malacateco, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Municipal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Municipal win
62.7% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Municipal home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Malacateco away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.6%
- 2–013.5%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
Municipal
- 2026-09-25T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Suchitepéquez · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Malacateco · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Aurora · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo San Pedro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Comunicaciones · 1-0 (W)
Malacateco
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Guastatoya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobán Imperial · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Marquense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Mixco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Municipal · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · Municipal 2-2 Malacateco (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-03-29T00:00:00.000Z · Municipal 1-0 Malacateco (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-02-07T01:00:00.000Z · Municipal 3-1 Malacateco (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-10-25T23:00:00.000Z · Municipal 4-1 Malacateco (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · Municipal 3-2 Malacateco (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-04-06T21:00:00.000Z · Municipal 1-0 Malacateco (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-02-01T21:00:00.000Z · Municipal 4-2 Malacateco (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-10-27T01:00:00.000Z · Municipal 0-4 Malacateco (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · Municipal 0-0 Malacateco (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-04-28T20:30:00.000Z · Municipal 4-0 Malacateco (Liga Nacional)
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guastatoya | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 27 |
| 2 | Municipal | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 3 | Antigua GFC | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Marquense | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 5 | Deportivo San Pedro | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | Xelajú | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Mixco | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 8 | Aurora | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Cobán Imperial | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 | Comunicaciones | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Malacateco | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 12 | Suchitepéquez | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -16 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Municipal win, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.