Estadio Manuel Felipe Carrera · Analysis updated 12:51 UTC
Municipal vs Marquense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Municipal and 0.75 for Marquense, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Municipal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Municipal win
51.1% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Municipal home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marquense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 2–011.2%
- 0–19.2%
Recent form
Municipal
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Xelajú · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-21T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Mixco · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Guastatoya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobán Imperial · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Marquense · 1-1 (D)
Marquense
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Malacateco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Aurora · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo San Pedro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Comunicaciones · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Xelajú · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-03T00:00:00.000Z · Municipal 2-1 Marquense (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-04-19T02:00:00.000Z · Municipal 3-1 Marquense (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-03-01T00:00:00.000Z · Municipal 1-0 Marquense (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-11-30T21:00:00.000Z · Municipal 2-0 Marquense (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · Municipal 3-0 Marquense (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-05-11T21:00:00.000Z · Municipal 1-0 Marquense (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-05-09T02:00:00.000Z · Municipal 1-1 Marquense (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-04-23T21:00:00.000Z · Municipal 0-0 Marquense (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-02-24T01:00:00.000Z · Municipal 0-0 Marquense (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-11-02T20:00:00.000Z · Municipal 2-0 Marquense (Liga Nacional)
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 29 |
| 2 | Municipal | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Guastatoya | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 27 |
| 4 | Mixco | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Xelajú | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Marquense | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 24 |
| 7 | Deportivo San Pedro | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 23 |
| 8 | Aurora | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 22 |
| 9 | Cobán Imperial | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 19 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Comunicaciones | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 | Suchitepéquez | 16 | 1 | 6 | 9 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Municipal win, at 51.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.