Estadio Manuel Felipe Carrera · Analysis updated 18:04 UTC
Municipal vs Suchitepéquez Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Municipal and 0.85 for Suchitepéquez, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Municipal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Municipal win
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Municipal home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Suchitepéquez away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 2–011.5%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Municipal
- 2026-09-25T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Suchitepéquez · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Malacateco · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Aurora · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo San Pedro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Comunicaciones · 1-0 (W)
Suchitepéquez
- 2026-10-19T02:10:00.000Z · A vs Marquense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo San Pedro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Mixco · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-05T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Comunicaciones · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Municipal · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2018-04-22T21:45:00.000Z · Municipal 0-0 Suchitepéquez (Liga Nacional)
- 2018-02-25T17:00:00.000Z · Municipal 2-0 Suchitepéquez (Liga Nacional)
- 2017-11-26T17:00:00.000Z · Municipal 2-0 Suchitepéquez (Liga Nacional)
- 2017-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · Municipal 1-1 Suchitepéquez (Liga Nacional)
- 2017-05-20T21:30:00.000Z · Municipal 1-0 Suchitepéquez (Liga Nacional)
- 2017-05-17T18:00:00.000Z · Municipal 2-1 Suchitepéquez (Liga Nacional)
- 2017-03-12T17:00:00.000Z · Municipal 1-0 Suchitepéquez (Liga Nacional)
- 2017-01-15T18:00:00.000Z · Municipal 0-0 Suchitepéquez (Liga Nacional)
- 2016-11-20T17:00:00.000Z · Municipal 3-2 Suchitepéquez (Liga Nacional)
- 2016-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · Municipal 4-1 Suchitepéquez (Liga Nacional)
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guastatoya | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 27 |
| 2 | Municipal | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 3 | Antigua GFC | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Marquense | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 5 | Deportivo San Pedro | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | Xelajú | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Mixco | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 8 | Aurora | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Cobán Imperial | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 | Comunicaciones | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Malacateco | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 12 | Suchitepéquez | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -16 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Municipal win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.