Mestni stadion Fazanerija · Referee M. Tozan · Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Mura vs Aluminij Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Mura and 1.86 for Aluminij, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Aluminij the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aluminij win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mura home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aluminij away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–28.1%
- 2–16.3%
Recent form
Mura
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Celje · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Maribor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Bravo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Koper · 0-1 (L)
Aluminij
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Maribor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mura · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Bravo · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · Mura 1-6 Aluminij (1. SNL)
- 2026-04-16T15:00:00.000Z · Mura 1-2 Aluminij (1. SNL)
- 2026-02-08T12:00:00.000Z · Mura 0-3 Aluminij (1. SNL)
- 2025-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · Mura 2-2 Aluminij (1. SNL)
- 2025-08-02T15:30:00.000Z · Mura 1-1 Aluminij (1. SNL)
- 2024-04-29T15:30:00.000Z · Mura 3-1 Aluminij (1. SNL)
- 2024-03-01T16:30:00.000Z · Mura 0-2 Aluminij (1. SNL)
- 2023-11-04T14:00:00.000Z · Mura 1-0 Aluminij (1. SNL)
- 2023-08-25T18:15:00.000Z · Mura 1-0 Aluminij (1. SNL)
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 23 |
| 2 | Koper | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Bravo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Nafta | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Celje | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | Mura | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aluminij win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.