Mestni stadion Fazanerija · Referee R. Obrenovic · Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
Mura vs Koper Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Mura and 1.43 for Koper, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Koper the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mura home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Koper away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 0–27.7%
Recent form
Mura
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Celje · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Maribor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Bravo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Koper · 0-1 (L)
Koper
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nafta · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpija Ljubljana · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Aluminij · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mura · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · Mura 0-1 Koper (1. SNL)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · Mura 0-1 Koper (1. SNL)
- 2026-03-01T14:00:00.000Z · Mura 0-3 Koper (1. SNL)
- 2025-11-07T16:30:00.000Z · Mura 3-2 Koper (1. SNL)
- 2025-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · Mura 1-2 Koper (1. SNL)
- 2025-05-25T15:30:00.000Z · Mura 1-3 Koper (1. SNL)
- 2025-03-29T16:30:00.000Z · Mura 0-1 Koper (1. SNL)
- 2025-02-26T16:30:00.000Z · Mura 0-1 Koper (Cup)
- 2024-12-08T16:30:00.000Z · Mura 1-3 Koper (1. SNL)
- 2024-09-22T13:00:00.000Z · Mura 0-0 Koper (1. SNL)
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 23 |
| 2 | Koper | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Bravo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Nafta | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Celje | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | Mura | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.