Murang'a SEAL vs GOR Mahia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Murang'a SEAL and 1.28 for GOR Mahia, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives GOR Mahia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

GOR Mahia win

50.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.70 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Murang'a SEAL home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GOR Mahia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 21% / 29% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Murang'a SEAL and 1.28 for GOR Mahia, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 32% and both teams to score at 36%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.

Match result (1X2)

Murang'a SEAL win21%

Draw29%

GOR Mahia win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

0–117.7%
0–013.9%
1–112.4%
0–211.3%
1–09.7%

Recent form

Murang'a SEAL

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Posta Rangers FC · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs GOR Mahia · 2-4 (L)
2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mara Sugar · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bidco United · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-17T13:15:00.000Z · H vs GOR Mahia · 1-3 (L)

GOR Mahia

2026-10-24T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Bandari · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs APS Bomet · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Murang'a SEAL · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyramids FC · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyramids FC · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FKF Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	GOR Mahia	3	3	0	0	4	9
2	Mara Sugar	3	1	2	0	1	5
3	AFC Leopards	2	1	1	0	1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	1	1	0	1	4
5	Shabana	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	KCB	3	1	1	1	0	4
7	Murang'a SEAL	2	1	0	1	2	3
8	Tusker	1	1	0	0	2	3
9	Posta Rangers FC	3	1	0	2	-4	3
10	3K	2	0	2	0	0	2
11	Nairobi United	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Migori Youth	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Bandari	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Mathare United	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Ulinzi Stars	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Kenya Police	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	APS Bomet	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Mombasa Elite	2	0	0	2	-2	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is GOR Mahia win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.