· Analysis updated 21:41 UTC
Murang'a SEAL vs KCB Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Murang'a SEAL and 1.31 for KCB, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Murang'a SEAL the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Murang'a SEAL win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Murang'a SEAL home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
KCB away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Murang'a SEAL to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Murang'a SEAL and 1.31 for KCB, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Murang'a SEAL
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Posta Rangers FC · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs GOR Mahia · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mara Sugar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bidco United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T13:15:00.000Z · H vs GOR Mahia · 1-3 (L)
KCB
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Posta Rangers FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mathare United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nairobi United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-14T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandari · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabana · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Mara Sugar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | AFC Leopards | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Shabana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | KCB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Murang'a SEAL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Posta Rangers FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | 3K | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Nairobi United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Bandari | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Kenya Police | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | APS Bomet | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Mombasa Elite | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Murang'a SEAL win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.