Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Murang'a SEAL and 1.13 for Nairobi United, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Nairobi United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

74.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.80 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Murang'a SEAL home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nairobi United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 26% / 31% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Murang'a SEAL and 1.13 for Nairobi United, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 37%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Match result (1X2)

Murang'a SEAL win26%

Draw31%

Nairobi United win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%

Over 2.5 goals30%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

0–116.4%
0–014.6%
1–113.1%
1–011.7%
0–29.2%

Recent form

Murang'a SEAL

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Posta Rangers FC · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs GOR Mahia · 2-4 (L)
2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mara Sugar · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bidco United · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-17T13:15:00.000Z · H vs GOR Mahia · 1-3 (L)

Nairobi United

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabana · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KCB · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs GOR Mahia · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kenya Police · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Posta Rangers FC · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-19T12:00:00.000Z · Murang'a SEAL 2-4 Nairobi United (FKF Premier League)
2025-12-12T13:00:00.000Z · Murang'a SEAL 1-1 Nairobi United (FKF Premier League)

FKF Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	GOR Mahia	3	3	0	0	4	9
2	Mara Sugar	3	1	2	0	1	5
3	AFC Leopards	2	1	1	0	1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	1	1	0	1	4
5	Shabana	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	KCB	3	1	1	1	0	4
7	Murang'a SEAL	2	1	0	1	2	3
8	Tusker	1	1	0	0	2	3
9	Posta Rangers FC	3	1	0	2	-4	3
10	3K	2	0	2	0	0	2
11	Nairobi United	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Migori Youth	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Bandari	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Mathare United	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Ulinzi Stars	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Kenya Police	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	APS Bomet	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Mombasa Elite	2	0	0	2	-2	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 74.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.