· Analysis updated 15:53 UTC
Murata vs Cosmos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Murata and 2.33 for Cosmos, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Cosmos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cosmos win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 2.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Murata home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cosmos away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–17.7%
- 1–36.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–26.0%
Recent form
Murata
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Folgore · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Juvenes / Dogana · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentino · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-08T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Tre Fiori · 0-3 (L)
Cosmos
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juvenes / Dogana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Murata · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pennarossa · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs San Giovanni · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Tre Penne · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T19:15:00.000Z · Murata 0-2 Cosmos (Campionato)
- 2026-03-01T14:00:00.000Z · Murata 0-3 Cosmos (Campionato)
- 2025-10-31T20:15:00.000Z · Murata 1-1 Cosmos (Campionato)
- 2025-01-22T20:15:00.000Z · Murata 2-0 Cosmos (Campionato)
- 2024-09-13T19:15:00.000Z · Murata 1-0 Cosmos (Campionato)
- 2024-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · Murata 1-0 Cosmos (Campionato)
- 2023-12-16T14:00:00.000Z · Murata 1-2 Cosmos (Campionato)
- 2023-01-20T20:15:00.000Z · Murata 2-3 Cosmos (Campionato)
- 2022-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · Murata 1-4 Cosmos (Campionato)
- 2022-02-16T20:15:00.000Z · Murata 3-0 Cosmos (Campionato)
Campionato table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Virtus | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | La Fiorita | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Libertas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Fiorentino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Domagnano | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | San Giovanni | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Murata | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cosmos win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.