Stadio Igor Crescentini · Analysis updated 14:35 UTC
Murata vs Fiorentino Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Murata and 2.25 for Fiorentino, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Fiorentino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fiorentino win
73.2% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Murata home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fiorentino away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.6%
- 0–112.1%
- 0–310.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.2%
Recent form
Murata
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Folgore · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Juvenes / Dogana · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentino · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-08T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Tre Fiori · 0-3 (L)
Fiorentino
- 2026-05-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs La Fiorita · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs La Fiorita · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs La Fiorita · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Murata · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Faetano · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · Murata 1-4 Fiorentino (Campionato)
- 2025-12-20T14:00:00.000Z · Murata 0-3 Fiorentino (Campionato)
- 2025-03-29T14:00:00.000Z · Murata 1-0 Fiorentino (Campionato)
- 2024-12-01T14:00:00.000Z · Murata 0-1 Fiorentino (Campionato)
- 2024-04-20T13:00:00.000Z · Murata 3-0 Fiorentino (Campionato)
- 2024-01-13T14:00:00.000Z · Murata 1-2 Fiorentino (Campionato)
- 2023-04-11T19:15:00.000Z · Murata 2-1 Fiorentino (Campionato)
- 2022-12-18T14:00:00.000Z · Murata 0-1 Fiorentino (Campionato)
- 2022-02-05T17:00:00.000Z · Murata 2-3 Fiorentino (Campionato)
- 2021-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · Murata 0-0 Fiorentino (Campionato)
Campionato table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Virtus | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | La Fiorita | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Libertas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Fiorentino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Domagnano | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | San Giovanni | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Murata | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fiorentino win, at 73.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.