· Analysis updated 10:39 UTC
Muri-Gümligen vs Bassecourt Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Muri-Gümligen and 1.70 for Bassecourt, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Muri-Gümligen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Muri-Gümligen home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bassecourt away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muri-Gümligen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 23% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Muri-Gümligen and 1.70 for Bassecourt, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.7%
Recent form
Muri-Gümligen
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Langenthal · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buochs · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Wohlen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zug · 1-0 (W)
Bassecourt
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Delémont · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Schötz · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Thun II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Black Stars · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Münsingen · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Langenthal | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Courtételle | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Schötz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Muttenz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Solothurn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Delémont | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Concordia Basel | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Buochs | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Muri-Gümligen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 10 | Grasshopper II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Zug | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 12 | Bassecourt | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | Thun II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | FC Wohlen | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 | Black Stars | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Münsingen | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.