· Analysis updated 17:01 UTC
Murom vs Metallurg Lipetsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Murom and 0.91 for Metallurg Lipetsk, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Murom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Murom win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Murom home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Metallurg Lipetsk away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Murom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 27% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Murom and 0.91 for Metallurg Lipetsk, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.9%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Murom
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tver · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra Smolensk · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Luki-Energiya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Zvezda St. Petersburg · 3-0 (W)
Metallurg Lipetsk
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Saturn Ramenskoye · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit Penza · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tula II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Strogino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T04:00:00.000Z · A vs SKA Khabarovsk II · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Murom win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.