Viktor Losev Stadion · Analysis updated 08:29 UTC
Murom vs Tver Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Murom and 1.03 for Tver, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Murom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Murom win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Murom home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tver away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Murom
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tver · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra Smolensk · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Luki-Energiya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Zvezda St. Petersburg · 3-0 (W)
Tver
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Irkutsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Vologda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Baltika II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Yenisey II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chertanovo Moscow · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-28T15:00:00.000Z · Murom 0-1 Tver (Second League - Group 2)
- 2022-10-08T11:00:00.000Z · Murom 0-0 Tver (Second League - Group 2)
- 2022-08-10T15:00:00.000Z · Murom 1-0 Tver (Second League - Group 2)
- 2022-05-28T13:00:00.000Z · Murom 2-0 Tver (Second League - Group 2)
- 2022-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · Murom 0-0 Tver (Second League - Group 2)
- 2021-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · Murom 1-4 Tver (Second League - Group 2)
- 2020-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · Murom 1-2 Tver (Second League - Group 2)
Second League - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murom | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 44 |
| 2 | Dinamo St. Petersburg | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 42 |
| 3 | Luki-Energiya | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 42 |
| 4 | Baltika II | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 40 |
| 5 | Chertanovo Moscow | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 39 |
| 6 | Torpedo Vladimir | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 32 |
| 7 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Tver | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 24 |
| 9 | Cherepovets | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 10 | Zvezda St. Petersburg | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Dinamo Vologda | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 23 |
| 12 | Spartak Moscow 2 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 13 | Yenisey II | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -17 | 19 |
| 14 | Iskra Smolensk | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -25 | 15 |
| 15 | Irkutsk | 21 | 3 | 2 | 16 | -35 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Murom win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.