Porin Stadion · Analysis updated 12:24 UTC
Musa vs ÅIFK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Musa and 2.57 for ÅIFK, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives ÅIFK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ÅIFK win
72.3% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 2.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Musa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ÅIFK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 12% / 16% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Musa and 2.57 for ÅIFK, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 57%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.8%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–38.4%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Musa
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs GrIFK · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs GrIFK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs EBK · 1-1 (D)
ÅIFK
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ÅIFK win, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.