Porin Stadion · Analysis updated 12:22 UTC
Musa vs EPS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Musa and 2.97 for EPS, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives EPS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
EPS win
74.1% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 2.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Musa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
EPS away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates EPS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 12% / 14% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Musa and 2.97 for EPS, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–27.1%
- 0–37.1%
- 1–46.1%
Recent form
Musa
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs GrIFK · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs GrIFK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs EBK · 1-1 (D)
EPS
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilves II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs P-Iirot · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ÅIFK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Honka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs HJS Akatemia · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is EPS win, at 74.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.