Porin Stadion · Analysis updated 12:25 UTC
Musa vs NJS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Musa and 1.58 for NJS, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Musa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Musa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NJS away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Musa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Musa and 1.58 for NJS, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.0%
Recent form
Musa
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs GrIFK · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs GrIFK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs EBK · 1-1 (D)
NJS
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs GrIFK · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs EBK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Musa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs GrIFK · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.