· Analysis updated 16:08 UTC
Musanze vs Police Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Musanze and 0.64 for Police, a combined total of 1.39. That distribution gives Musanze the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 38%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.7% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Musanze home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Police away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 34% / 38% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Musanze and 0.64 for Police, a combined 1.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
62%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–025.0%
- 1–018.8%
- 0–115.9%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–07.0%
Recent form
Musanze
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Etincelles · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kiyovu Sports · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Kigali · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Marines · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gasogi United · 3-2 (W)
Police
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunrise · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mukura · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gicumbi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gasogi United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kiyovu Sports · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Mukura | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Gorilla | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Sunrise | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Marines | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Amagaju | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Bugesera | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Police | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Gasogi United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 25% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.