Ecuador · Liga Pro · Matchweek 2900:00

1 – 1

Tuesday, 8 September 2026

Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa · Referee Oswaldo Contreras, Ecuador · Analysis updated 15:39 UTC

Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Mushuc Runa SC and 0.98 for Leones del Norte, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Mushuc Runa SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

70.2% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mushuc Runa SC home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Leones del Norte away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mushuc Runa SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 29% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Mushuc Runa SC and 0.98 for Leones del Norte, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Mushuc Runa SC win41%

Draw29%

Leones del Norte win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–013.6%
1–113.3%
0–011.4%
0–111.1%
2–08.2%

Recent form

Mushuc Runa SC

2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Cuenca · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Guayaquil City FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Leones del Norte · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-28T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Delfin SC · 1-0 (W)

Leones del Norte

2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Guayaquil City FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tecnico Universitario · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Mushuc Runa SC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Orense SC · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-08T00:00:00.000Z · Mushuc Runa SC 1-1 Leones del Norte (Liga Pro)
2026-05-17T18:00:00.000Z · Mushuc Runa SC 1-3 Leones del Norte (Liga Pro)
2024-07-21T21:30:00.000Z · Mushuc Runa SC 0-0 Leones del Norte (Copa Ecuador)

Liga Pro table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	-3	39
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	-9	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	-3	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	-25	21
1	Independiente del Valle	31	25	2	4	41	77
2	Macara	32	17	6	9	10	57
3	LDU de Quito	32	15	7	10	9	52
4	Universidad Catolica	32	14	9	9	22	51
5	Aucas	32	14	8	10	3	50
6	Barcelona SC	31	11	11	9	6	44
7	Libertad	32	13	8	11	3	47
8	Guayaquil City FC	32	11	10	11	-2	43
9	Leones del Norte	32	10	10	12	-4	40
10	Emelec	32	10	9	13	-11	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	32	9	12	11	-4	39
12	Deportivo Cuenca	32	10	8	14	-12	38
13	Orense SC	32	9	7	16	-12	34
14	Tecnico Universitario	32	10	3	19	-15	33
15	Delfin SC	32	8	8	16	-11	32
16	Manta FC	32	7	6	19	-23	27

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.