· Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Mutilvera vs San Juan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Mutilvera and 0.70 for San Juan, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Mutilvera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mutilvera win
60.7% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mutilvera home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Juan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mutilvera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 24% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Mutilvera and 0.70 for San Juan, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.6%
- 2–013.0%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–19.1%
Recent form
Mutilvera
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bidezarra · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs San Juan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cirbonero · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Avance Ezcabarte · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Valle Egüés · 1-1 (D)
San Juan
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mutilvera · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Subiza · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Beti Onak · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Txantrea · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Izarra · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 18 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Gazte Berriak | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Avance Ezcabarte | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Subiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Doneztebe FT | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | Aoiz | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Valle Egüés | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Beti Onak | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | San Juan | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Txantrea | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 13 | Cirbonero | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 5 |
| 14 | Cortes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Huarte | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Bidezarra | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Cantolagua | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mutilvera win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.