· Analysis updated 10:26 UTC
Muttenz vs Courtételle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Muttenz and 1.35 for Courtételle, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Muttenz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Muttenz home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Courtételle away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muttenz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Muttenz and 1.35 for Courtételle, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.0%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Muttenz
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Black Stars · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Münsingen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Courtételle · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia Basel · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Delémont · 0-0 (D)
Courtételle
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zug · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Solothurn · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Muttenz · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Bassecourt · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Schötz · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Langenthal | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Courtételle | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Schötz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Muttenz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Solothurn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Delémont | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Concordia Basel | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Buochs | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Muri-Gümligen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 10 | Grasshopper II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Zug | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 12 | FC Wohlen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Thun II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Bassecourt | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | Black Stars | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Münsingen | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.