· Analysis updated 22:39 UTC
Muttenz vs Delémont Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Muttenz and 1.03 for Delémont, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Muttenz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.7% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Muttenz home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Delémont away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Muttenz
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Black Stars · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Münsingen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Courtételle · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia Basel · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Delémont · 0-0 (D)
Delémont
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bassecourt · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Buochs · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Muri-Gümligen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zug · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Muttenz 0-0 Delémont (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · Muttenz 3-2 Delémont (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2025-11-08T15:00:00.000Z · Muttenz 5-0 Delémont (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2020-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Muttenz 1-3 Delémont (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2019-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · Muttenz 2-1 Delémont (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Langenthal | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Courtételle | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Schötz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Muttenz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Solothurn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Delémont | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Concordia Basel | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Buochs | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Muri-Gümligen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 10 | Grasshopper II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Zug | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 12 | Bassecourt | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | Thun II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | FC Wohlen | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 | Black Stars | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Münsingen | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.